制造业评级

Another win for the mid-end segment. We maintain ourOutperform rating on Hengdeli (3389 HK) but downgradeEmperor Watch & Jewellery (887 HK) from Outperform toNeutral as we believe mid-end watch retailers will continue tooutperform their high-end peers. Sales momentum ofhigh-end luxury watches remains sluggish as consumersscale back on spending on big-ticket items in 2H12.Same-store sales (SSS) for Emperor continued tounderperform the market in 4Q12 but Hengdeli achievedresilient growth throughout 2H12 thanks to its focus onlow-to-mid end watches. Oriental Watch (398 HK,Not Rated), a mid-end operator, also saw positive SSSG for4Q12. We believe the divergence in sales between mid-endand luxury retailers will continue into 2013F due to cautiousspending on gifts as well as competition from overseasmarkets, notably Europe. No material margin improvement. With no price incrementfrom Swiss watch suppliers in 2H12, gross margins are likelyto retreat. Hengdeli has imposed strict discount controls tohead off margin squeeze. Emperor’s tack has been to giveeven more discounts, especially in 4Q12, so as to boostsales and clear inventory. Aggressive promotions are likely toput considerable pressure on Emperor’s gross margin forFY12F. We prefer Hengdeli. We see upside for a re-rating forHengdeli given that: (1) the market recognizes the company’sSSSG has bottomed-out; (2) there is good potential formargin improvement, and (3) the company continues to tradeat an undemanding valuation of CY13F P/E of 12x, or elsebelow its average historical P/E. Hengdeli's low-to-mid endsegment, which contributes over 70% of group revenue,should provide solid support for topline growth and our 18%earnings growth projection in FY13F. We upgrade our targetCY13 P/E for Hengdeli from 9x to 13x, which is close to thecompany’s mid-cycle valuation. While Hengdeli’s prospectsseem to be improving, Emperor appears to be struggling. Are-rating catalyst for the stock is unlikely in the near term dueto downside risks after a sharp decline in Hengdeli’s grossprofit margin cost pressure caused by de-leveraging.`Emperor is likely to see more earnings downgrades from thestreet, in our view. We value Emperor based on anunchanged target discount of 20% (or a CY13F P/E of 9x)versus Hengdeli. Key catalyst and risks. Swiss suppliers have hinted at priceincreases in 2013 and, in our view, the impending macrorecovery should support this. Inventory risk remains the keyoverhang for watch retailers and we expect inventory levelsat both Hengdeli and Emperor to remain high at over 190days, with little improvement in FY12F.

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