事件:8月15日,国家电力调度控制中心、北京电力交易中心联合发布《跨区域省间富余可再生能源电力现货试点规则(试行)》。定于8月18日启动弃风、弃光电能及四川弃水电能跨区域省间现货交易试点(17日为竞价日,18日为执行日)。 背景介绍:电力现货市场,一般是指日前、日内、实时的电能交易市场。电改文件中对于电力现货交易设定的初期目标,是在具备条件的地区逐步建立以中长期交易为主、现货交易为补充的市场化电力电量平衡机制。远期目标则是建立以中长期交易作为市场交易主体的避险工具,以现货市场发现价格、实现电力经济调度,交易品种齐全、功能完善的电力市场。目前,我国电力市场主要是中长期交易,包括年度双边协商和月度集中竞价。通过日前、日内的市场交易,发挥短时间尺度灵活、最优的特点,反映电力作为商品的时间价值。 《规则》内容关注重点:我们认为,一是报价及出清方式。“将卖方报价按照从低到高排序,将按照可能的交易路径折算到送端的买方报价按照从高到低的顺序排序”,“按照买卖双方报价价差递减的原则依次出清。”二是发电优先级。“当跨区域通道达到稳定限额,送端火电、水电已经降至最小技术出力,仍有可再生能源外送需求时,优先调减直流配套火电计划,同步调减配套火电计划,直至减至配套火电现有开机方式下的最小技术出力”。 现货市场改善新能源消纳作用明显:现货市场的建立一是有利于通过市场机制发现电力价格,二是有利于资源的优化配置,三是有利于可再生能源消纳。正如我们之前的评论,针对我国目前西北地区弃风弃光、西南地区弃水问题,通过建立现货市场,加强调度管理,在日前、日中市场利用通道冗余,可以进一步提升新能源消纳水平。本次现货交易试点的实施,不仅仅提早行业预期的2018年实施试点工作,而且内容全面,可实施性强。于此同时,跨省可再生能源电力现货市场的试点实施释放了重要的信号--国家及电网公司对于目前可再生能源消纳问题的重视程度空前提高。同时,现货市场的试点的启动,是新一轮电改启动后电力市场建设的突破性进展,是意义深远的一大步。 投资建议:结合现货市场试点所在地及试点诉求,建议重点关注西北、西南装机比重较大,弃风、弃光、弃水改善空间较大的可再生能源发电企业。

Robust growth in 1Q; strong momentum in 2Q Double-digit IA growth in China across major MNCs In order to better gauge the China industrial automation (IA) market, we launch quarterly read-across from Multinational Corporations (MNCs) by taking a close look at MNCs' IA business development in China and management comments. This, along with our existing quarterly IA monitor, aims to provide investors with a comprehensive review of the China IA market. For 1Q17, datapoints and management comments from major MNCs were positive, with channel restocking and factory automation being the major drivers. With continued strength in demand, MNCs are generally expecting a strong 2Q ahead. Double-digit IA growth in China across major MNCs China IA growth for most MNCs we track in this issue picked up further in 1Q17 (calendar year). This is in line with the broad-based recovery trend we have seen since 4Q16. More specifically, Yaskawa Electric’s sales in China accelerated 21% YoY in China (vs. +9% in 4Q16). Siemens’ short-cycle automation businesses (i.e. motion control) were up c.30% YoY in China. ABB also recorded a double-digit increase in both robotics and motion control business while Schneider’s automation business in China rose 20% YoY. While import substitutions continued to gain momentum at the hardware level (or individual product level), MNCs continued to dominate the IA solution market (software in particular). Key words: channel restocking, factory automation and positive 2Q outlook Comments on the China IA market by major MNCs also sounded positive. Siemens sees healthy channel conditions in China and believes the strong IA recovery was purely market-driven. Factory automation has been the key driver as ABB continued to see weak process automation in China. Channel restocking has been frequently cited as one of the key drivers and Schneider attributed as much as half of its China IA growth to distributors’ restocking. OEM demand remained favorable, in line with the manufacturing upgrade trend in China. Looking ahead, most of these MNCs believe such strong momentum could sustain into 2Q. Buy Chinese IA names for strong growth; top picks: Inovance and HOLI Local IA leaders clearly outperformed MNC peers on the back of accelerating import substitutions. Inovance’s IA orders surged 60% YoY while HOLI’s IA orders also rose c.30% YoY in 1Q. We reiterate Buy on HOLI and Inovance. Key risks: slower-than-expected IA growth and import substitutions.